June 2024's New Quarterly US Ad Forecast Through 2028

Madison and Wall: Saturday Summary for June 8, 2024

This week I published an updated forecast for the US advertising industry, reflecting the better-than-expected growth trends posted during the first quarter of the year and underlying conditions that don’t appear to be letting up.   Excluding political advertising, following on a 10.1% growth rate for 1Q24 and a revised expectation for 6.7% growth during the current quarter, my new forecast calls for 6.3% growth during the full year.  This compares with a 5.6% forecast published back in March.

Underlying trends appear to mostly be holding, with digital platforms growing well, but TV (including connected TV) down by low single digits.   Publishing (including related digital properties and stand-alone digital content alike) is faring similarly to television while audio and direct mail are roughly flat.  Outdoor advertising remains a bright spot among so-called “traditional” media format.

The full data-set, including quarterly estimates from 2017 to 2028 for dozens of separately groupings of media are available to advisory and consulting clients as well as stand-alone corporate subscribers.   Please reach out for more information if you don’t already have access.

Separately, it was a fairly slow news week for the media industry, although investor communications from two of Europe’s leading media companies were worth noting.   Each of ITV and MFE presented relatively rosy pictures for their respective advertising businesses (one in the form of an educational investor webinar and the other through a press release providing updated expectations for the first half of the year).  However, I continue to see short-term positivity as a mis-read of the current strength of the overall ad market and the significant share losses that TV has experienced in countries around the world.  Moreover, growth from a depressed base that is essentially at the same levels observed five years ago is hardly a reason to celebrate.   Mis-reading the market can be dangerous, as it can lead to complacency rather than the pursuit of more radical business changes.

Source: Madison and Wall, Company Reports