TikTok Canada Ban Implications for US Ad Market, 3Q24 Ad Results At Pinterest, The Trade Desk, WBD, Paramount, Stagwell, S4 + Large Marketers. Also, an Interview with the CEO of MMM Company Mutinex
Madison & Wall: Saturday Summary for Nov. 9, 2024
Each week on the M&W Podcast, we discuss Madison & Wall’s latest research and walk listeners through how the advertising business really works. Episode 10 of the Madison & Wall M&W Podcast is now available on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Weekly Work
With another deluge of earnings this week we analyzed 3Q24 advertising revenue trends for digital platforms such as Pinterest, US-based network-owners Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount and Fox, international network owners BCE and ITV, local station groups Sinclair, Gray, EW Scripps and Nexstar, ad tech companies including The Trade Desk, DoubleVerify, LiveRamp, Magnite and AppLovin’ and agency groups including Stagwell and S4. And then there was also News Corp., JC Decaux, I Heart Media and Ziff-Davis, among others. In short, digital advertising and ad tech is mostly up double digits, underlying TV advertising is mostly down mid or high single digits and agencies (or at least Stagwell and S4) are mixed.
The positive overall trends were reinforced in commentary we analyzed from CEOs and CFOs at large marketers who reported results, including Coty, Henkel, Progressive, RBI and Yum Brands. Some applications of AI in marketing was an important topic that came up in this context.
We published a sponsored interview with Henry Innis from Mutinex, which produces marketing mix modelling software. It’s a pretty interesting conversation about the tools marketers use to optimize their media spending and the ways they do it. The entire interview is accessible to everyone on a complimentary basis here.
We reviewed the news that the Canadian government is ordering “the wind up of TikTok” in that country while allowing consumers to access the app. To the extent that marketers shift spending away from TikTok, where the money goes may provide some indications around what might happen if the US divest-or-exit law causes TikTok to leave its biggest market early next year.
Additional Context
The news that the Canadian government is ordering “the wind up of TikTok” is potentially a big deal if it holds. The company will still have a technical capacity to sell advertising to marketers based in Canada via international operations. However, it’s hard not to imagine that many will choose to shift their spending whether because of the potential appearance of countering the spirit of the government’s action or because there are practical or logistical reasons why a Canadian marketer (or budget-holder) wouldn’t be able to engage with a foreign entity.
To the extent that marketers shift spending away from TikTok, where the money goes may provide some indications around what might happen if the US divest-or-exit law causes TikTok to leave its biggest market early next year.
In our analysis we looked at details on the size of the Canadian operations for many of TiKTok’s direct competitors, including Google, Snap, Pinterest and Meta, along with growth trends for Bell Media, Corus and Quebecor. It’s theoretically possible that broadcasters or streamers could see some incremental revenue, although very doubtful given the view we hold that marketers shift spending to next-best alternatives to accomplish their goals when one medium or media owner is unavailable.
Additional analysis of the research is contained here.
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