2023 Quarterly Growth Benchmarks for US Advertising
On several occasions in recent days I have had conversations about benchmark growth rates for advertising over the remainder of this year. Below is a chart from my new US advertising forecast model (which I wrote about here) with 25 different cuts of ad-supported media on a quarterly basis for all of 2023.
On the far left of the chart you can see growth for all advertising, and in the second group of bars you can see the underlying cadence of the advertising market, excluding political advertising. As I wrote previously, the combination of a relatively-healthy economy and easy comparables means that the fourth quarter should be the best quarter of the year. As before, on an ex-political basis, I expect acceleration for the year following a 1.3% growth rate in the first quarter and a 4.2% growth rate in the second quarter. During the third quarter I expect 6.0% growth and during the fourth quarter I expect 8.0% growth. While the 4Q23 number sounds strong, it’s important to recall that 4Q22 was essentially flat, at a nadir of marketer sentiment and the absence of pandemic-driven boom-era marketers.
For individual media, the stand-outs are in the extremes – retail, or commerce media growth faster than everyone else (up 17.2% in the third quarter and 19.0% in the fourth quarter) and national connected TV also growing at a robust pace (+9.3% in the third quarter and 12.6% in the fourth quarter). Unsurprisingly, directories are in the weakest position of all media types that I track.
Among other media I think will warrant the most attention, I continue to expect national TV declining, at a -6.5% pace in the third quarter and at a -4.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Social media platforms should grow around 14% in the third quarter and around 10% in the fourth quarter.
Source: Madison and Wall