Madison and Wall: Saturday Summary
For the week ending December 2, 2023
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This past week I published my updated US advertising forecast where I’m now anticipating 5.9% underlying growth for the US ad market in 2023 vs. 5.0% previously. 2024 now looks stronger as well, with the total market expected to grow 5.2%. For all of next year I forecast that there will be $397 billion in ad revenue for media owners in the United States, including $17 billion of political advertising.
The post covers some of the main trends covering different forms of digital advertising (search, social, commerce media and “other”), television (including the digital / connected form and national as well as local), and briefly reviews outdoor, audio, publishing, direct mail and directories.
Also, immediately prior to the Thanksgiving break I published two other pieces worth highlighting:
I published my quarterly summary of consumer video spending trends. In 3Q23 I estimate that total spending on video, across pay TV, streaming services, cinema and other forms of professional video was up by 2.0%. Unsurprisingly, streaming is up by a lot, largely funded by cuts to spending on traditional pay TV.
I published a comparison of growth trends for TV and digital advertising in Europe to highlight the point that most of the main trends we can see in the US directly translate to trends observing most everywhere else, and that any claims by TV network owners of a weak ad market are incorrect: it’s their share of the ad market that’s weak and declining. Which necessarily means new approaches going far beyond connected TV need to be considered for long-term growth in advertising to occur. I’ll be talking about a number of these issues and opportunities at the Future of TV Advertising in London on Tuesday and Wednesday.